Presenting his paper on Pakistan, Jonathan Paris first identified five main challenges for Pakistan today:
1. Threat of fragmentation and the loss of state control over various territories that undermine the integrity, sovereignty and solidarity of the country;
2. Security and terrorism throughout the country;
3. Economy;
4. Governance issues including corruption; and
5. Rebuilding the Pakistan Brand.
In his latest report for the Legatum Institute, Jonathan Paris analyses the prospects for Pakistan over a one to three year time horizon. The Pakistani state has shown itself to be both the source and recipient of instability, but it has also been remarkably resilient.
Looking at economic, political, security, and bilateral issues, he highlights three possible scenarios for Pakistan over this relatively short time horizon; Pakistan probably will avoid becoming a “failed state” and is unlikely to find a “pathway to success” but, as Pakistan confronts a myriad of vexing challenges, the most likely scenario is that it will “muddle through”.
If you’ve missed the talk you can listen to it here